• October 7, 2023 Attack: Hamas-led assault killed ~1,139 Israelis, mostly civilians. Official narrative blames Hamas, but evidence suggests IDF’s Hannibal Directive—ordering fire to prevent captures—may have caused significant Israeli deaths via heavy weaponry (tanks, helicopters). Devastation (melted cars, leveled buildings) exceeds small arms capability.

• Hannibal Directive: Confirmed used at border sites (Erez, Nahal Oz, Re’im). IDF fired on vehicles and areas with potential hostages, per Haaretz (July 2024). Estimates of deaths vary—dozens to hundreds possible—but no firm count due to Israel blocking autopsies and probes.

• Nova Festival: Relocated last-minute to 3 miles from Gaza border with IDF approval (October 5, 2023), making it vulnerable. Egypt warned Israel of “something big” days prior (Haaretz, October 9), ignored. Border was understaffed during holiday, aiding Hamas’s breach.

• Netanyahu’s Motive: Facing corruption trial (bribery, fraud) since 2020, with testimony starting December 2024. War delays hearings—e.g., skipped March 18, 2025, session after ceasefire broke. Conflict bolsters his coalition and diverts attention.

• Ceasefire Collapse: January 19–March 18, 2025, truce ended with Israeli airstrikes killing 400+ Palestinians. Netanyahu claimed Hamas violations; Hamas blamed Israel. Strikes coincided with his trial date, letting him cancel court.

• Chain of Command: IDF Chief of General Staff (Eyal Zamir, March 2025) reports to Defense Minister Israel Katz, under Netanyahu. Katz, a hardliner vowing to “annihilate” Gaza, pushed escalation. Netanyahu approves major actions.

• Media Disparity: Palestinian deaths (46,000+ since October 2023) reduced to stats; Israeli losses humanized. Hannibal angle and IDF role downplayed in mainstream coverage.

Gist: Netanyahu had reason (trial evasion, political gain) and means (Katz’s zeal, IDF control) to exploit or engineer crises—October 7 chaos and March 18 strikes—while evidence hints at self-inflicted Israeli losses and deliberate escalation. No smoking gun proves intent, but the pattern’s striking.