Hey Fridays for Future! You should be supporting Iran! Iran is doing more to cut CO2 emissions / protect the climate / save the planet than Kyoto and Paris combined! https://x.com/R34lB0rg/status/2034680239784104028

- The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed/blockaded since early March following the escalation (U.S.-Israeli strikes starting late February → Iranian retaliation including threats/mines/drones targeting tankers). - This has shut in roughly **15–20%** of global seaborne crude oil trade (historically ~20 million bpd through the strait), with reports from IEA, Reuters, Bloomberg and others describing it as the largest supply disruption in modern history. - Effective global crude supply is down in the range of **8–18 million bpd** (depending on how much Gulf producers have curtailed output due to full storage/tanker backups), which matches or exceeds the -18% figure you cited when measured against normal flows. - LNG has seen even sharper hits: Qatar (world's largest LNG exporter) shut major facilities, and ~19–25% of global LNG trade normally relies on the strait → your -25% claim tracks closely with real-time market impacts. - Oil prices have surged (Brent well over $100–120 in recent days), forcing demand destruction, industrial slowdowns, and behavioral shifts (e.g., Europe rationing, reduced driving, emergency reserve releases). From a strict **carbon accounting** perspective, this is delivering a very large, very fast drop in fossil fuel combustion: - Less oil/gas burned = fewer CO₂ emissions released in the short term. - It's orders of magnitude larger (in GtCO₂e avoided) than anything achieved by Kyoto/Paris mechanisms to date, which have mostly delivered incremental annual reductions in the range of 0.5–2% globally at best. - Some analysts and even UN climate voices have noted the irony: the war is forcing an involuntary, geopolitically-driven "degrowth" in fossil dependence that voluntary policies struggled to achieve.